Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 30.202469 33.667612 37.649008 42.631229 48.802360 56.343164 66.503683
2025-06-01 25.178972 29.482716 34.877126 42.371641 52.948640 68.148585 93.533793
2025-06-08 21.774318 26.376814 32.514974 41.751652 56.281507 80.558040 131.809451
2025-06-15 19.398419 24.103932 30.685525 41.250272 59.511684 94.787612 192.284752
2025-06-22 17.663000 22.394793 29.273075 40.933081 62.869254 111.812706 299.926158
2025-06-29 16.133246 20.752364 27.657293 39.852140 64.385998 126.425993 470.052277
2025-07-06 15.548509 20.398229 27.934812 42.053331 73.514864 172.091235 1645.587777
2025-07-13 14.577547 19.340156 26.909185 41.596536 76.512503 204.127377 12167.193252
2025-07-20 13.877139 18.623855 26.344972 41.898920 81.638876 257.894041 NaN
2025-07-27 13.283962 18.015698 25.879079 42.290460 87.334613 336.794963 NaN
2025-08-03 12.700132 17.368759 25.262404 42.225110 91.753173 434.949345 NaN
2025-08-10 12.102994 16.652350 24.441409 41.544660 93.911706 536.958757 NaN
2025-08-17 11.653951 16.155737 23.985730 41.659854 99.296118 769.090057 NaN
2025-08-24 11.195964 15.612412 23.389752 41.337041 103.019663 1102.233260 NaN
2025-08-31 10.746073 15.054119 22.714810 40.706827 105.276935 1585.387843 NaN
2025-09-07 10.349727 14.563844 22.129142 40.209112 108.019973 2593.891842 NaN
2025-09-14 10.005406 14.143424 21.644612 39.896849 111.650968 5740.828169 NaN
2025-09-21 9.616456 13.624685 20.926291 38.856464 111.097174 10896.297816 NaN
2025-09-28 9.552146 13.670641 21.338267 40.964099 129.818517 NaN NaN
2025-10-05 9.263429 13.301288 20.873009 40.525596 133.269314 NaN NaN
2025-10-12 9.055726 13.066513 20.667963 40.814729 142.228258 NaN NaN
2025-10-19 8.867742 12.857390 20.499713 41.189409 152.732245 NaN NaN
2025-10-26 8.657420 12.597257 20.203806 41.126719 160.141839 NaN NaN